2025 Big 12 Bowl Preview: Every Matchup, Every Pick
Bowl season is here. The Big 12 has 11 teams in bowl games — plus Texas Tech in the College Football Playoff — which means we have 11 opportunities to argue about picks.
Below you’ll find every Big 12 bowl matchup with analysis from both of us. Mike likes unders and overthinks everything. Jake likes overs and chaos. Let’s see who does better.
For the record, my bowl record last year was 7-4. Jake’s was 5-6. He doesn’t like to talk about it. — Mike
One of those losses was a bad beat. It doesn’t count. — Jake
College Football Playoff — First Round
Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame
Date: December 21 | Location: South Bend, IN
Line: Notre Dame -7 | O/U: 52.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
This is a fascinating matchup. Notre Dame has the better overall roster and home-field advantage. South Bend in December is brutal for visiting teams — cold, hostile, loud.
But Tech has momentum. They just destroyed BYU in the championship game. The defense is peaking. Behren Morton is playing the best football of his career.
The 7 points feels like a lot for a team that’s won 11 games. Notre Dame’s run defense has been suspect, and Tahj Brooks can exploit that. I think Tech covers, but Notre Dame wins a close one.
Mike’s Pick: Notre Dame 27, Texas Tech 24. Take Tech +7.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
WE’RE PLAYING FOR A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP BERTH.
Okay. I need to be objective here. I’ll try.
Notre Dame is good. Their offensive line is elite. Their quarterback is experienced. They’re at home.
But they haven’t played a defense like Tech’s. Jacob Rodriguez is going to be in that backfield all game. The secondary has improved every week. And our offensive line — the one everyone said was going to be a problem — just dominated BYU.
I think we win. Outright. In South Bend. On national TV.
Jake’s Pick: Texas Tech 28, Notre Dame 24. Take Tech +7 and the moneyline if you’re feeling spicy.
New Year’s Six
Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. LSU
Date: December 28 | Location: San Antonio, TX
Line: LSU -3.5 | O/U: 49.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
BYU’s defense against LSU’s offense. This is a styles matchup.
LSU can score on anyone. Their receiving corps is NFL-caliber. But BYU’s secondary has been excellent all year — only 6 interceptions allowed by Jake Retzlaff, and the defense created turnovers at a high rate.
I think BYU’s defense keeps this close. LSU wins, but BYU covers.
Mike’s Pick: LSU 24, BYU 21. Take BYU +3.5 and the under.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
BYU just got embarrassed in the championship game. They’re going to come out angry.
But LSU has too much firepower. The Tigers’ offense is going to score, and BYU’s offense couldn’t move the ball against Tech. I don’t think they’ll move it against LSU either.
Jake’s Pick: LSU 31, BYU 20. Take LSU -3.5.
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami
Date: December 28 | Location: Orlando, FL
Line: Miami -6 | O/U: 51
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Iowa State against another high-powered offense. This is Matt Campbell’s specialty — slow the game down, control the clock, keep it close.
Miami’s offense is explosive, but they haven’t faced a defense this disciplined all year. Iowa State is going to make them earn everything.
Mike’s Pick: Miami 24, Iowa State 21. Take Iowa State +6 and the under.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Miami is going to win this game by double digits. Iowa State is boring and their offense can’t keep up.
Jake’s Pick: Miami 34, Iowa State 20. Take Miami -6.
Jake, you’ve underestimated Iowa State literally every time we’ve bet on them. — Mike
I know. I can’t help it. They’re so boring. — Jake
Other Bowl Games
Holiday Bowl: Colorado vs. USC
Date: December 27 | Location: San Diego, CA
Line: USC -2.5 | O/U: 58.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Colorado games go over 66.7% of the time. This total is set at 58.5. Both offenses can score.
The line is essentially a pick’em. I think Colorado’s offense, even without Hunter (assuming he sits), has enough to keep it close.
Mike’s Pick: USC 35, Colorado 31. Take the over and Colorado +2.5.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Deion vs. USC. The content is going to be incredible.
If Travis Hunter plays, Colorado wins. If he doesn’t, it’s a toss-up. I’m taking Colorado because chaos.
Jake’s Pick: Colorado 38, USC 34. Take Colorado +2.5 and the over. Obviously.
Liberty Bowl: Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Date: December 27 | Location: Memphis, TN
Line: Kansas State -1 | O/U: 47.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Two physical, run-first teams. This is going to be ugly in the best way.
K-State’s offensive line is better. DJ Giddens is going to have a day. I like the Wildcats in a low-scoring slugfest.
Mike’s Pick: Kansas State 24, Arkansas 17. Take K-State -1 and the under.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
This game is going to be unwatchable. 47.5 is still too high. Take the under and go do something else.
Jake’s Pick: Kansas State 20, Arkansas 17. Take the under. Please.
Texas Bowl: TCU vs. LSU
Date: December 31 | Location: Houston, TX
Line: LSU -10 | O/U: 55
Wait, LSU is playing twice? — Jake
No, that’s wrong. Let me fix this. TCU is playing Baylor in the Texas Bowl. No wait, that’s not right either. Let me check. — Mike
Actually, TCU is playing Texas A&M. — Mike
Correction: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M -7.5 | O/U: 52
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
TCU had a disappointing season, but bowl games are weird. Teams can rally, play for pride, and pull off upsets.
Texas A&M is more talented, but they’ve been inconsistent. 7.5 feels like a lot.
Mike’s Pick: Texas A&M 28, TCU 24. Take TCU +7.5.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
TCU is cooked. A&M wins big.
Jake’s Pick: Texas A&M 35, TCU 21. Take A&M -7.5.
First Responder Bowl: Kansas vs. Syracuse
Date: December 26 | Location: Dallas, TX
Line: Kansas -2.5 | O/U: 54
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Kansas in a bowl game. Still feels weird to type.
Jalon Daniels should be healthy. Syracuse is inconsistent. I like Kansas to cover in a game that’s closer than it should be.
Mike’s Pick: Kansas 31, Syracuse 27. Take Kansas -2.5.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Kansas is favored in a bowl game. What timeline are we in?
I’m taking Kansas because Lance Leipold deserves nice things.
Jake’s Pick: Kansas 34, Syracuse 28. Take Kansas -2.5 and the over.
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Army
Date: December 27 | Location: Fort Worth, TX
Line: Baylor -3 | O/U: 44.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Army runs the triple option. Baylor has a physical, disciplined defense. This is a classic “stop the run or lose” game.
Dave Aranda will have them prepared. Baylor wins, but it’s ugly.
Mike’s Pick: Baylor 21, Army 17. Take the under.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Army’s offense is going to put everyone to sleep. Baylor wins 17-14. Take the under and go to bed early.
Jake’s Pick: Baylor 17, Army 14. Under. Obviously.
Gasparilla Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida State
Date: December 20 | Location: Tampa, FL
Line: Florida State -3 | O/U: 48
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
Two disappointing teams meeting in Tampa. Cincinnati is still adjusting to the Big 12. Florida State fell off a cliff after last year.
This feels like a coin flip. I’ll take the points.
Mike’s Pick: Florida State 24, Cincinnati 21. Take Cincinnati +3.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Neither of these teams deserves to be here. FSU wins because they have more talent. Barely.
Jake’s Pick: FSU 27, Cincinnati 20. Take FSU -3.
Cure Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech
Date: December 20 | Location: Orlando, FL
Line: UCF -3 | O/U: 61.5
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
UCF at home. Total set at 61.5. This has over written all over it.
UCF’s offense scores, their defense doesn’t stop anyone, and Georgia Tech can move the ball. 61.5 is still probably too low.
Mike’s Pick: UCF 38, Georgia Tech 35. Take the over.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
UCF games went over 75% of the time this year. The total is 61.5. Take the over. This isn’t complicated.
Jake’s Pick: UCF 42, Georgia Tech 38. Over. Always over. UCF overs forever.
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. USC
Wait, USC is playing twice now? — Jake
No, I made another error. ASU is playing… let me check… Texas. — Mike
Correction: Arizona State vs. Texas
Line: Texas -10 | O/U: 56
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
ASU is scrappy and plays fast. Texas is more talented but inconsistent.
10 points is a lot. Kenny Dillingham will have them ready. I think ASU covers.
Mike’s Pick: Texas 31, ASU 24. Take ASU +10.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
Texas is going to be angry after missing the playoff. ASU is going to get steamrolled.
Jake’s Pick: Texas 38, ASU 21. Take Texas -10.
Birmingham Bowl: West Virginia vs. South Carolina
Date: December 28 | Location: Birmingham, AL
Line: South Carolina -3.5 | O/U: 52
🛋️ Mike’s Take:
West Virginia in a shootout against an SEC team. Garrett Greene can keep them in it.
I think this is close. WVU covers.
Mike’s Pick: South Carolina 31, West Virginia 28. Take WVU +3.5.
🍺 Jake’s Take:
WVU overs hit 58% of the time. This total is 52. Take the over and enjoy the chaos.
Jake’s Pick: South Carolina 34, WVU 31. Take the over and WVU +3.5.
Summary: Our Picks
| Bowl | Mike’s Pick | Jake’s Pick |
|---|---|---|
| CFP: Tech vs. Notre Dame | Tech +7 | Tech +7 (and ML) |
| Alamo: BYU vs. LSU | BYU +3.5, Under | LSU -3.5 |
| Pop-Tarts: Iowa St vs. Miami | Iowa St +6, Under | Miami -6 |
| Holiday: Colorado vs. USC | Colorado +2.5, Over | Colorado +2.5, Over |
| Liberty: K-State vs. Arkansas | K-State -1, Under | Under |
| Texas: TCU vs. Texas A&M | TCU +7.5 | A&M -7.5 |
| First Responder: Kansas vs. Syracuse | Kansas -2.5 | Kansas -2.5, Over |
| Armed Forces: Baylor vs. Army | Under | Under |
| Gasparilla: Cincy vs. FSU | Cincinnati +3 | FSU -3 |
| Cure: UCF vs. Georgia Tech | Over | Over |
| Las Vegas: ASU vs. Texas | ASU +10 | Texas -10 |
| Birmingham: WVU vs. South Carolina | WVU +3.5 | Over, WVU +3.5 |
We agreed on 5 picks. We disagree on 7. That feels about right.
Good luck, and gamble responsibly.
— Mike & Jake
More from lime-hedgehog-424707.hostingersite.com/:
Gambling involves risk. Only wager what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.