UCF Overs Are the Easiest Money in College Football

I’m going to tell you something. This is not financial advice. This is not a guarantee. This is just what I’ve observed.

UCF overs hit 75% of the time this year. SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT.

If you bet the over on every single UCF game, you went 9-3. You made money. Significant money. Without thinking. Without analyzing. Just “UCF over” every week and let the points roll in.

Why does this happen? Let me explain.

UCF’s offense is explosive. Gus Malzahn runs an up-tempo system that puts up points. KJ Jefferson can throw. RJ Harvey can run. The receivers are fast. They’re going to score, almost always, at least 30 points.

UCF’s defense is… not good. They give up points. A lot of points. They can’t get stops. They can’t force punts. Every game turns into a track meet where both teams are scoring on every possession.

Put those together and you get games that end 45-42. Games that end 38-35. Games where the total is set at 58 and the final combined score is 73.

The BYU game was perfect. Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum. BYU wants to play slow and go under. UCF wants to play fast and go over. What happens? The over hits. Because UCF’s offense forces the pace.

Mike’s note: The 75% over rate is actually insane. I’m a natural under bettor and even I couldn’t fade UCF overs by October. The defense is just too bad. The offense is just too fast. Points happen.

Here’s the thing though — Vegas knows this now. The totals for UCF games are set higher than most. You’re seeing numbers like 62, 64, 66. They’re trying to trap over bettors.

But even with inflated totals, UCF keeps hitting. Because there’s apparently no upper limit on how many points can be scored when both defenses are optional.

My prediction for next year: UCF overs continue to be profitable until they either fix the defense (unlikely) or Gus Malzahn leaves (also unlikely). Ride the wave.

— Jake

P.S. — This is definitely not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. But also… UCF overs.