Why Iowa State Unders are the Closest Thing to Free Money

Listen. I hate unders. You know this. Mike knows this. Everyone who has ever read anything I’ve written knows this. Unders are boring. Unders mean you’re rooting for incompetence. Unders mean you’re hoping both teams play like garbage.

But I have to be honest with you: Iowa State unders are printing money.

I didn’t want to believe it. Mike kept telling me all year. “Jake, Iowa State went under again.” “Jake, that’s seven unders in a row.” “Jake, why are you still betting overs on Iowa State games?”

Because I’m stubborn! Because I believe in hope! Because I refuse to accept that a college football game is going to end 17-13 until it actually does!

But the numbers don’t lie. Iowa State went under in NINE of thirteen games this year. That’s 69.2%. If you bet the under on every Iowa State game, you’d be up huge. Like, really huge.

Why does this happen? Let me break it down, even though it pains me.

First, the defense. Iowa State’s defense is suffocating. They don’t give up big plays. They tackle well in space. They make you earn every yard. Opponents average like 280 yards against them. That’s nothing.

Second, the offense. Iowa State doesn’t try to score 45 points. They want to control the clock, run the ball, and win 24-17. They’re not taking shots downfield every play. They’re grinding. Methodically. Boringly.

Third, the tempo. Iowa State plays SLOW. They use the whole play clock. They don’t hurry up. They don’t try to get extra possessions. They want fewer possessions because fewer possessions means fewer chances for something to go wrong.

Put it all together and you get games that end 21-14. Games that end 24-20. Games where the total is set at 48 and the final score is 31 combined.

I still bet the over on Iowa State vs. UCF because I thought surely — SURELY — there was no way UCF’s offense wouldn’t put up points. Final score: Iowa State 24, UCF 17. Under. Again.

Mike laughed at me for twenty minutes.

Mike’s note: It was more like thirty minutes. You kept saying “but UCF scores on everyone” and I kept saying “not on Iowa State they don’t.” I was right. Again. As usual.

Fine. FINE. Iowa State unders are legit. If they’re playing next year and the total is anything under 55, take the under. I’m done fighting it.

But I’m still going to hate it.

— Jake