Baylor Bears Football
2025: The Dave Aranda Question
2025 Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big 12) | AP Ranking: Unranked | Bowl: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Baylor is the definition of inconsistent. They’ll beat a top-15 team and lose to Houston in the same month. — Mike
I don’t know what to expect from Baylor in any given week. Neither do they, probably. — Jake
Quick Facts
| Location | Waco, Texas |
| Stadium | McLane Stadium (45,140) |
| Head Coach | Dave Aranda (6th season) |
| Colors | Green & Gold |
| Mascot | Bruiser / Judge Joy (live bears) |
| Conference Titles | 3 Big 12 (2013, 2014, 2021) |
Traditions: McLane Stadium sits on the Brazos River (boats dock outside), the “Sic ‘Em Bears” hand sign, live bears on campus, and being surprisingly good at random intervals.
Mike & Jake’s Take
🛋️ Mike’s Take (Oklahoma State Fan)
I’ve watched a lot of Baylor film this year, and I still can’t figure them out.
They beat Kansas State by 10 in Manhattan. That’s a quality win — physical, well-coached team, tough environment. Then two weeks later they lost to Houston by 14. Houston went 4-8.
That’s Baylor in 2025. Wildly inconsistent. Capable of beating anyone, capable of losing to anyone.
The defense is still good. Aranda’s a defensive coach, and it shows. They don’t give up easy yards, they tackle well, and they create pressure without blitzing. The scheme is sound.
The offense is the problem. No consistent quarterback play, too many three-and-outs, can’t sustain drives against good defenses. When Sawyer Robertson is on, he’s really on. When he’s off, the whole team struggles.
7-5 is… fine. It’s not what Baylor wants, but it’s not a disaster. The question is whether Aranda can fix the offensive issues or if they need to make a change at coordinator.
Confidence Level: Ceiling is high, floor is low
🍺 Jake’s Take (Texas Tech Fan)
The Tech-Baylor game this year was chaos. We won 31-24, but I had no idea what was going to happen until the final whistle.
Baylor is the team that makes you nervous even when you’re winning. They’ll be down 14 in the third quarter and suddenly it’s a one-score game. They don’t quit. They just… also don’t start strong?
I don’t know how to bet Baylor games. The ATS numbers are all over the place. The totals are all over the place. Everything is chaos. Check our predictions archive — I’ve been wrong on Baylor more than I’d like to admit.
The one thing I’ll say: McLane Stadium is a tough place to play. The stadium is cool — right on the river, great views — and the fans are into it. Road games at Baylor are sneaky difficult.
7-5 feels right for this team. Not elite, not bad, just… there. Aranda needs to figure out the offense or the seat’s going to get warm.
Confidence Level: Unpredictable
2025 Betting Trends
| Stat | Record | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Against the Spread (ATS) | 6-6 | 50.0% |
| Over/Under | 5-7 U | 41.7% |
| Home ATS | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| Road ATS | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| As Favorite ATS | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| As Underdog ATS | 2-3 | 40.0% |
Mike’s Betting Notes: The under trend makes sense. Aranda’s defense keeps games low-scoring, and the offense struggles to put up points. 5-7 on overs tells you the totals are usually set too high.
Jake’s Betting Notes: Home ATS is strong — 4-2. McLane is a factor. Road games are a different story. Fade Baylor on the road unless there’s a good reason not to. Full breakdown in our Big 12 Betting Guide.
Key Players (2025)
Sawyer Robertson — QB
201-of-324 (62.0%) | 2,387 yards | 17 TD | 10 INT | 135.4 rating
The Texas Tech transfer had moments of brilliance and moments of frustration. The talent is there; the consistency isn’t.
Bryson Washington — LB
96 tackles | 8.5 TFL | 4 sacks | 1 INT
The defensive leader and best player on the team. Washington is everywhere — sideline to sideline, great instincts, reliable tackler.
Josh Cameron — WR
68 rec | 892 yards | 13.1 YPR | 8 TD
The best playmaker on offense. Cameron can take the top off a defense and wins contested catches.
Rivals & Key Matchups
TCU — The Revivalry. Private school vs. private school, 90 miles apart. Games are personal. Baylor won 24-21 this year.
Texas Tech — West Texas vs. Waco. Always competitive, always chippy. Tech won 31-24.
Iowa State — Two physical, defense-first programs. Games are ugly and low-scoring.
More
- Big 12 Betting Guide — Everything you need before placing a bet on any conference game
- The Recliner vs The Barstool — How we rate games (and why we never agree)
- New Fan’s Guide to Big 12 Football — Just getting into the conference? Start here
- Current Standings | This Week’s Schedule
- Our Predictions Archive — Full transparency on every pick we’ve made